MUN vs ARS·Next Goal — Man Utd2.10MUN vs ARS·Next Goal — No Goal3.40MUN vs ARS·Next Goal — Arsenal2.90RMA vs SEV·Next Goal — Real Madrid1.60RMA vs SEV·Next Goal — No Goal5.00RMA vs SEV·Next Goal — Sevilla3.20INT vs NAP·Next Goal — Inter4.00INT vs NAP·Next Goal — No Goal1.20INT vs NAP·Next Goal — Napoli3.50ALC vs SIN·Match Winner — Alcaraz1.85

Favourite and Longshot

Also called: Odds-on, Outsider, Underdog

The favourite is the outcome with the shortest price and therefore the highest implied chance; a longshot is a long-priced outcome with a low implied chance.

"Odds-on" means a price below 2.00, where the profit is smaller than the stake. Researchers have repeatedly documented a favourite-longshot bias in betting markets, where long-priced outcomes tend to be backed more heavily than their true chance justifies, and short-priced ones less so.

Two ends of the same market

Inter Milan 1.0595.2% implied — heavy favourite, odds-on
Napoli 25.004.0% implied — longshot
£10.00 on Inter returns£10.50 (£0.50 profit)
£10.00 on Napoli returns£250.00 (£240.00 profit)

Note: these are the Match Winner prices in the demo's 85th-minute Serie A match, where Inter lead 2-1.

In this demo

The demo's mock prices span both extremes, from 1.05 on a team leading late to 25.00 on the side chasing the game.

Related terms

Implied Probability

The chance of an outcome implied by its price. Divide 1 by the decimal odds and multiply by 100.

Decimal Odds

Decimal odds express the TOTAL return per £1 staked, including the stake itself — not just the profit.

Value Bet

A bet where your own estimate of the outcome's chance is higher than the chance implied by the price.

Bets.tv is a demo environment showcasing simulated betting limits.

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