MUN vs ARS·Next Goal — Man Utd2.10MUN vs ARS·Next Goal — No Goal3.40MUN vs ARS·Next Goal — Arsenal2.90RMA vs SEV·Next Goal — Real Madrid1.60RMA vs SEV·Next Goal — No Goal5.00RMA vs SEV·Next Goal — Sevilla3.20INT vs NAP·Next Goal — Inter4.00INT vs NAP·Next Goal — No Goal1.20INT vs NAP·Next Goal — Napoli3.50ALC vs SIN·Match Winner — Alcaraz1.85

Value Bet

Also called: Positive expected value, +EV

A bet where your own estimate of the outcome's chance is higher than the chance implied by the price.

Value is a judgement about a disagreement with the market, never a guarantee — a value bet still loses most of the time at long odds.

Calculating expected value

Price2.90 (implies 34.5%)
Your estimate40%
Stake£10.00
Profit if it wins£19.00
Expected value+£1.60

Note: this is only positive if your 40% estimate is actually better than the market's — a wrong estimate produces confident-looking losses.

In this demo

The Ask the Brain page offers a "Best value bet tonight" style prompt, but its answers are scripted mock responses, not a real model output or a recommendation.

Related terms

Implied Probability

The chance of an outcome implied by its price. Divide 1 by the decimal odds and multiply by 100.

Overround

Add up the implied probabilities of every outcome in a market. The excess above 100% is the bookmaker's built-in margin.

In-Play Betting

Betting on a match already underway, with prices continuously repriced as the game state changes.

Closing Line Value

The difference between the price you took and the price the market settled at just before the event started.

Bets.tv is a demo environment showcasing simulated betting limits.

Back to Glossary•Responsible Gambling